Trumperica

November 9 2016

Image of Trumperica

Picture: The Met, detail of Rubens' c.1613 'Atalanta & Meleager'

Well would you believe it; President Trump. Rubens, above, foresaw him over 400 years ago. And AHN called it for him back in September - but takes no satisfaction in that now. We have no choice but to wish him the best - though many may reserve the right to fear the worst. Good luck America; over here in the UK we'll be with you, as we always are.

Update - Marion Maneker wonders what a Trump presidency might mean for the art market. It's too early to say, he notes, but; 

But in the first reckonings of what might affect the art market, there are at least two important issues worth acknowledging. The first is that global instability and doubt will tend to accelerate the process of money going into alternative stores of value. In plain english, there’s good reason to believe buyers will continue to shift cash into art and jewels instead of financial instruments like treasury bonds or, even, equities.

The second issue is a macroeconomic shift toward inflation. Low interest rates have been presumed to continue indefinitely. But already some of Trump’s likely advisors are calling for aggressive action on interest rates and other policy moves that will make inflation a priority over other goals. Economists further point to Trump’s signature immigration stance and the potential for a large stimulus package as signs that inflation will likely pick up as labor markets tighten from the effects. Trade restrictions too will also drive inflationary pressures.

Neither of these trends is necessarily bad for the art market, especially in the context of a political regime that is unlikely to raise taxes. The wealthiest sector of the global economy will continue to accumulate more cash than it can consume or productively invest. That money will seek a safe haven, especially if inflation erodes its value as cash or other investment yields don’t keep pace with inflation.

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